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果價、肉價市場調查:短期波動對餐桌影響不大

時間:2019-05-30 13:54:46  來源:  作者:

  北京三源里菜市場,品種豐富的進口及國產水果吸引市民駐足選購。本報記者 孔德晨攝

北京永輝超市,消費者在挑選雞蛋。本報記者 孔德晨攝

超市冰柜里出售的豬肉。本報記者 孔德晨攝

  蘋果10元一斤、豬肉14元一斤、普通雞蛋5.5元一斤……進入5月下旬,水果、豬肉和雞蛋價格有所上漲。有網友調侃,自己從追求“車厘子自由”已經降級為追求“蘋果自由”,買幾個蘋果就要花幾十塊錢。臨近端午,國內市場果價、肉價、蛋價是怎樣的行情?未來價格的走勢如何?

  蘋果也“吃不起”了嗎?

  ——鮮果鮮菜價格受季節因素影響大,價格上漲不具有持續性

  北京三源里菜市場是一個名副其實的“網紅”菜市場。這里環境清爽,攤位管理嚴格,每天不僅有大量市民來此采購肉菜,還有不少外國人、酒店老板往來于攤販之間。

  走進三源里菜市場,第一個水果攤的攤主王大姐正整理面前整齊碼放的蘋果。“今年蘋果價格也不知道為什么,從上個月開始就一直在漲。”王大姐說,“現在山東紅富士9.5元一斤,好一點的蘋果都達到13.5元一斤了。”不僅是蘋果,王大姐表示,水晶梨也漲到了10元一斤,貴的梨將近13元一斤。

  國家統計局最新發布的數據顯示,4月份居民消費價格上漲2.5%,漲幅比上個月上升了0.2個百分點。鮮菜、鮮果這兩類項目當月同比漲幅都超過了10%,對整體CPI的影響程度分別在0.2-0.5個百分點之間。進入5月,部分水果價格一路飆升,帶動整體水果市場價格上漲。

  專賣國產水果的李大爺告訴記者,這兩周蘋果批發價就很貴,現在有的已經高達8元一斤。“妃子笑、香橙、楊梅這些也略微有些上漲,價格相比去年這會兒稍微高一些。”李大爺說。他表示,南方水果相比北方水果情況略好一些,有的價格已經達到高位,后期應該不會再漲。“像麒麟瓜,現在是將近6元一斤,但是本地瓜快上市了,西瓜價格估計整體會下降。”

  據了解,水果的價格與庫存有著直接關系。物以稀為貴,蘋果、梨這種“大眾情人”類基礎水果可替代性不高。由于去年倒春寒天氣的影響,長時間低溫持續,不利于花芽的分化,加上部分地區遇到大風冰雹天氣的出現,北方水果產量受到了較大的影響。“現在在售的蘋果都是去年的庫存,新蘋果還沒下來呢。”水果攤攤主張女士說,“去年因為受了災害,庫存本來就少,今年蘋果漲價也是正常的。”張女士認為,等到今年9月份,新蘋果進入市場緩解當前供給不足的情況之后,蘋果價格應該會下降。

  此外,中國地域寬廣、水果品類多樣。各地很快將進入荔枝、桃、西瓜、圣女果等水果的盛果期,總體上不會出現“吃不起水果”的狀況。

  國家統計局新聞發言人劉愛華表示,近期鮮菜、鮮果價格上漲是受季節性因素的影響,高漲的態勢不會持續。“從鮮菜、鮮果價格來看,這兩個品種明顯受到極端天氣因素的影響,這些季節性的短期沖擊不具有持續性。”

  忽高忽低的豬肉價格

  ——后期可能會有一定幅度上漲,但居民消費不會受到大的影響

  與漲得有點猛的水果價相比,進入5月份豬肉價格起伏不定,但因基數較低,整體價格并不離譜。

  在三源里菜市場的肉類區,賣豬肉的高大姐介紹,由于豬肉品種不同,五花肉價格也從13元到17元不等。“這段時間豬肉價格稍微漲起來了,主要是因為前段時間價格比較低。”高大姐說。

  根據北京新發地市場發布的實時數據,5月17日新發地市場白條豬批發平均價是9.33元/斤,比4月15日的9.35元/斤下降0.21%,比去年同期的6.15元/斤上漲51.71%。豬肉價格周環比小幅下降,月環比微幅下降,年同比大幅上漲。

  北京新發地市場統計部負責人劉通表示,豬肉價格同比大幅上漲主要是因為去年同期的肉價過低,為價格上漲留出了較大的空間。“新發地市場的數據顯示,去年3至5月份白條豬批發的平均價是近10年同期的最低點,今年雖然同比出現大幅上漲,但是整個4月份的價格在近5年同期中仍然不是同期的高點。”劉通分析。

  附近餐館的王老板在采購豬肉時告訴記者,豬肉價格并沒有從低價猛漲到高價的趨勢。“做餐飲的同行有的說豬肉價格接下來會越漲越高,有一些人已經囤了不少豬肉了。”王老板說,“但是我覺得不會一下漲得很離譜,這周的價格相比上周也沒有漲,豬肉價格這兩周一直很平穩。”

  入夏,豬肉消費逐漸表現出淡季運行的特征,消費相對疲軟。劉通預測,在這種情況下,肉價暫時不具備上漲的可能性。“原來人們預測,肉價在下半年會出現比較明顯的上漲,現在看來,肉價上漲的一部分壓力已經在3月份提前釋放。”

  臨近端午,由于居民對豬肉需求增加,豬肉價格可能會出現小幅上漲。李奶奶在豬肉攤前挑選著豬肉,表示快到端午節了,她打算買一些五花肉回家腌成咸肉包粽子吃。“每逢過節大家都會來買肉買菜,家里孩子多,就喜歡吃我包的肉粽子。”

  國家發改委新聞發言人孟瑋此前在回應部分居民對豬肉價格上漲的擔憂時表示,受非洲豬瘟疫情、“豬周期”等因素疊加影響,后期生豬和豬肉價格可能會有一定幅度上漲。但由于國內畜禽、水產、禽蛋等商品生產供應較為充足,居民消費不會受到大的影響。

  一斤雞蛋一周漲了0.5元

  ——雞蛋期貨拉動蛋價上漲,估計近期價格會趨穩并出現回調

  不同于水果和豬肉價格上漲是因供給不足,近一周來雞蛋價格連續走高則是另有原因。

  在三源里菜市場賣雞蛋的袁大姐回憶,一周前普通雞蛋5元一斤,但現在已經漲到了5.5元一斤。“再往前一點,雞蛋是4元多一斤,就是普通雞蛋漲價,像那些土雞蛋、柴雞蛋反而沒漲。”

  上周,新發地市場雞蛋的批發價是4.50元/斤,比上月同期的4.02元/斤上漲11.94%,同比上漲26.40%。雞蛋價格周環比明顯上漲,月環比大幅上漲,年同比大幅上漲。

  另一位雞蛋商張大爺告訴記者,現在雞蛋批發價4.7元一斤,而前段時間才賣4.5元一斤。“價格這東西本來就是忽高忽低的。”張大爺說,“只是價格不穩定我們也不好賣。”

  雞蛋供應商劉先生反映,到養雞場收購雞蛋,整個過程是比較順暢的,在養雞場看不到雞蛋短缺的現象。業內人士指出,在這種情況下,蛋價連續上漲必有緣由。實際上,近期蛋價連續上漲,主要是雞蛋期貨上漲拉動的。大盤價格上漲拉動蛋價上漲,與雞蛋的供求關系沒有直接的關聯。

  在北京居住了5年的日本人淺川先生表示,他每逢周末就會來三源里購買這里的伊勢紅心雞蛋。“除了伊勢雞蛋外,我也會購買普通雞蛋。這段時間雞蛋價格從4元一斤一下就漲到了5.5元一斤。”他認為,這種上漲不是常態,希望蛋價能恢復平穩。

  價格主要由供求決定,期貨上漲拉動的價格上漲不會持續。劉通表示,4月份以后,雞蛋期貨的價格也是不斷波動的,漲漲落落,波動上行,養雞場不要被這種走勢所誤導。

  劉通分析,近期市場上小碼雞蛋的上市量有所增加,后期將有不少新雞會相繼進入開產期,雞蛋供應很快會充盈起來。剔除蛋價在夏季會出現季節性上漲的因素,短期內蛋價不存在大幅上漲的誘因。如果不是大盤價格的拉動,近期蛋價會趨穩且出現回調。(孔德晨)來源: 人民日報海外版

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